The Travel Road Ahead - 2025

The forecast data is driven by Tourism Economics' travel forecasting model.

Looking ahead: For 2025, total U.S. Travel spending is projected to grow 3.9% to $1.35 trillion, with additional growth to $1.46 trillion (inflation-adjusted) by 2028.

Air Travel Expected to Grow at Consistent Rate -

— 2024 resulted in a record numbers of domestic air travelers. Spending grew at a lower rate than the number of trips, domestic leisure travel is forecast to increase by 3.9% and reach more than $1 trillion in 2025, equaling 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Air travel volumes are expected to continue growing into 2026 and beyond. Where consumers will put their money (low cost fares, convenience, or comfort) is yet to be seen and likely driven by the economic impact upon ticket pricing.

— Future US hosted events will help the travel trend -

The FIFA 2026 World Cup, America’s 250th Anniversary, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, and more. The U.S. Travel forecasts 8.8% growth for inbound international visits in 2025 and 8.9% growth in 2026.

— Growth in international visits to the United States remains an important factor in re-establishing travel as one of our most important exports, with more than $200 billion in international spending projected for 2025. The strength of the US Dollar will also help determine international travel impacts. The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, outpacing the 1.7% growth forecast for all developed markets.

— The recovery for business travel is slower than other verticals -

However, healthy profit margins for companies and continued corporate investment bode well for higher rates of growth. U.S. Travel forecasts 4.0% growth in business travel spending for 2025, reaching $316 billion.

— Risks remain for business travel, including corporate cost-cutting initiatives that may reduce travel or increase reliance on virtual meetings. Full recovery of business travel spending to pre-pandemic levels is not expected until after 2028. In 2025, travel managers expect growth to slow by a couple of percentage points from 2024, but gains appear likely to continue to pace at two to three times GDP growth.

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